In the initial conditions, western and northern Europe show a positive soil moisture anomaly due to a wet April in western Europe and an anomalous snow season in the north (See February outlook). This is reflected in high river discharge for northern Europe during May in both EFAS and SMHI hydrological outlooks.
Meanwhile central and eastern Europe as well as the northern Alps are drier than normal. The ECMWF forecast has a low precipitation anomaly over central Europe, which is probably connected to the dry initial conditions but can also be related to the SST pattern over the Atlantic and the teleconnection from the Caribbean and El Nino. The initial soil moisture anomaly and the dry forecast result in low discharge both for the forecast for the Rhine (Kaub) and over central Europe in general.
Wet anomaly on the Iberian Peninsula, the western edge of Europe and the Nordic countries. Dry initial conditions in eastern Europe. Dry conditions for upper Rhine catchments.
zoom
zoom
Emerging positive Nino3.4 anomaly in ECMWF with eastern tropical Pacific still cold. Cold tropical Atlantic and also in northern Atlantic with warm anomaly in the central-western part.
Northern Europe drier than normal in summer in case of El Nino..
Tendency to a positive phase of the summer NAO in ECMWF. Both ECMWF and UKMO have a positive pressure anomaly over the Caribbean with a teleconnection to the dry Europe.
ECMWF is dry for northern-central Europe. This is clearer in the probability for the lower tercile (not shown).
Dry May in ECMWF forecast in large parts of Europe.
zoom
zoom
Initially high river flows in Scandinavia due to the large snow pack in the past winter.
Wet anomaly on the Iberian Peninsula, the western edge of Europe and the Nordic countries. Dry initial conditions in eastern Europe. Dry conditions for upper Rhine catchments.
Neutral conditionsENSO
Emerging positive Nino3.4 anomaly in ECMWF with eastern tropical Pacific still cold. Cold tropical Atlantic and also in northern Atlantic with warm anomaly in the central-western part.
Northern Europe drier than normal in summer in case of El Nino.
Tendency to a positive phase of the summer NAO in ECMWF. Both ECMWF and UKMO have a positive pressure anomaly over the Caribbean with a teleconnection to the dry Europe.
ECMWF dry for northern-central Europe. More clear in probability for lower tercile (not shown).
ECMWF is dry for northern-central Europe. This is clearer in the probability for the lower tercile (not shown).
Emerging positive Nino3.4 anomaly
High discharge in Iberian in SMHI for all months due to long persistence of initial conditions. Agree with sensitivity analysis.
Initially high river flows in Scandinavia due to the large snow pack in the past winter. Emerging low flow for the Rhine.
High May discharge in Norway but dry later. Lost all snow early?
Low discharge in upper Rhine in SMHI.
High discharge in Iberian in SMHI for all months due to long persistence of initial conditions. Agree with sensitivity analysis.
