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RISK OUTLOOK ARCHIVE

FEBRUARY 2018

The large snow pack in the Nordic countries in the initial conditions provides a strong potential for positive discharge anomalies once the melting season starts.

Otherwise no significant signals for Europe.

State at starting point, based on ERA-5

Normalised anomaly soil moisture 0-1m

Initial very wet over most of central-northern Europe. Iberian peninsula still dry after dry autumn.

Normalised anomaly soil moisture 0-1m zoom

SST anomaly

La Nina conditions

SST anomaly zoom

Snow water anomaly [mm]

Lot of snow in Scandinavia, less than normal in Russia

Snow anomaly zoom

Atm. seasonal forecasts (month 1-3) from Copernicus C3S

Indices based on ECMWF

  • ENSO

    ENSO

  • NAO

    NAO

  • Northern Europe Temperature

    Northern Europe Temperature

  • Northern Europe Precipitation

    Northern Europe Precipitation

  • Southern Europe Temperature

    Southern Europe Temperature

  • Southern Europe Precipitation

    Southern Europe Precipitation

Hydrological outlooks

EFAS (0-1.5 months)

Low in February discharge in Scandinavia, where it’s still cold

Hydrological outlooks (all by ECMWF) zoom

BfG for Kaub (0-1.5 months)

 

SMHI Seasonal