At the end of July 2017, Europe had drier soil than normal in southern Europe, while northern Europe was somewhat wetter than normal.
The atmospheric seasonal forecasts predicted a continuation of this north/south dipole with less precipitation than normal in the south and more in north, especially during the first month. The dry signal for southern Europe could be linked to an emerging La Nina. The hydrological outlooks show lower discharge than normal in southern Europe and France, in line with the dry soil in the initial conditions. There is high probability for high discharge in north-western Russia for the coming two months due to wet initial conditions and large rainfall during the first month of the forecast.
Soil dry in central and southern Europe and wet in north-eastern Europe
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Neutral ENSO conditions
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The UK MetOffice forecast predicted a weak La Nina
La Nina teleconnection to dry Iberian and wetter in the north - somewhat consistent with both forecasts.
Consistent weak north/south dipole in precipitation in all forecasts - it will maintain initial dipole (probably caused by the initial dipole)
First month strong north/south dipole in ECMWF precipitation forecast vs. the dominant predictability source.
Low discharge in western France and parts of Spain in August/September due to low initial state
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Soil dry in central and southern Europe and wet in north-eastern Europe
Neutral ENSO conditions
The UK MetOffice forecast predicted a weak La Nina
La Nina teleconnection to dry Iberian and wetter in the north - somewhat consistent with both forecasts
Consistent weak north/south dipole in precipitation in all forecasts - it will maintain initial dipole (probably caused by the initial dipole)
First month strong north/south dipole in ECMWF precipitation forecast vs. the dominant predictability source
Month 0
Month 1
Low discharge in western France and parts of Spain in August/September due to low initial state
High probabilities for large discharge in Russia due to wet initial conditions and high precipitation during the first month
